The New Holiday Shopper — 4 Trends That Will Drive Q4 Success
by Cat Hausler min read
Abstract
- Last year’s stretch of economic uncertainty didn’t hold back 2024 holiday shoppers — U.S. Q4 retail sales grew by 3.8% year-over-year.
- Consumers are finding value by strategically “trading down” — more than half of shoppers say that they look for deals on every purchase.
- The end of Q4 shouldn’t be overlooked by advertisers — 43% of consumers start holiday shopping in November and December.
- Q4 gifting is shifting — wellness and experiences are growing in popularity.
Questions about the economy haven’t cooled Q4 spending — they’ve just made shoppers more strategic. While shoppers remain cost-conscious, they’re finding creative ways to maintain their holiday traditions and splurge on what matters most. For advertisers, these evolving consumer habits create fresh challenges — as well as opportunities — during the most competitive time of year.
Brands looking to maximize their Q4 performance need to understand how holiday shopper behaviors are shifting. To help advertisers get ahead, we tapped into first party MNTN Performance TV data and industry-wide research. Here are the must-know insights that will shape Q4 advertising success.
Holiday Shoppers Are Ready to Spend, While Still Accounting for Economic Uncertainty
Last year’s holiday season unfolded against a backdrop of economic uncertainty, much like what’s expected in 2025. But this didn’t negatively impact Q4 spending. While discount levels were similar to 2023, consumer response was notably stronger — for every 1% decline in price, demand increased by 1.03%, compared to the previous year. This helped to grow total U.S. Q4 retail sales by 3.8% year-over-year (YoY).
Our data supports this trend — MNTN customers saw strong YoY growth across key performance indicators in Q4 2024.
Looking ahead to Q4, consumer behavior trends from 2025 thus far offer valuable clues about what to expect during the upcoming holiday season.
A standout behavior is “trading down” — and goes beyond just buying cheaper products.
“Globally, 79% of surveyed consumers are trading down but not necessarily by purchasing fewer items or seeking discounts at lower-priced retailers (though these actions are still common),” McKinsey & Company reported. “Instead, more than half of surveyed consumers across markets say that they look for deals on every purchase.”
Additionally, one-third of shoppers will trade down in one category to splurge on something else, and nearly one in five plan to cut back on nondiscretionary items to afford splurges on more discretionary ones.
Early indicators suggest this strategic spending approach will continue into Q4. As of June 2025, global spending intentions remained steady month-over-month (MoM) and increased significantly YoY.
MNTN advertiser data from Q2 2025 supports this optimism as key performance metrics grew substantially YoY.
Strong Q2 performance not only suggests momentum heading into the critical holiday season, it underlines our recent finding that the summer season has become a crucial time for building customer loyalty ahead of Q4.
November and December Remain Vital For Driving Business
Yes, Christmas Creep is real — consumers are starting their holiday shopping earlier each year, and retailers are launching promotions well before Thanksgiving. Walk into any brick-and-mortar retail location on November 1st and chances are they’re already decking the halls.
The focus on engaging eventual-holiday-shoppers early has led to October playing a pivotal role in Q4 strategy. Establishing and maintaining brand presence throughout October sets the stage for the rest of Q4 — it’s the strategic buildup that positions advertisers to capitalize in November and December. You catch early shoppers, and deliver valuable brand touchpoints with later shoppers.
But all this focus on early shopping shouldn’t make advertisers overlook a key point: November and December remain vital for driving business growth during the holiday season.
Despite all the talk about extended shopping seasons, nearly half of consumers start their holiday shopping in November and December. And this isn’t solely due to shopper procrastination, it’s strategic — many consumers often wait for the best deals, make final gift decisions, and capitalize on the competitive pricing that intensifies as the season progresses.
The final stretch before Christmas shouldn’t be overlooked — the last five days of the holiday season account for 10% of all holiday spending.
MNTN advertiser data reinforces the continued dominance of the final months of Q4. Even with major shopping moments like Labor Day, 4th of July, and Halloween scattered throughout Q3 and early Q4, November and December still drive considerably more revenue than any other months. These peak months also deliver the highest conversion rates and average order values (AOV), proving that despite heightened competition, advertisers can benefit from increased shopping intent during this time frame.
More Consumers Are Trading Traditional Gifts for Wellness and Experiences
While traditional retail categories typically dominate Q4 conversations, our analysis revealed strong growth in two rising categories: Health and Wellness, and Sports.
Health and Wellness Becomes a Bigger Focus for Holiday Shoppers
We previously touched on how health and wellness advertiser performance surges during “Resolution Season”, but 2024 revealed a shift — consumers are increasingly making these types of purchases earlier in Q4 in preparation for the new year. Nearly half (46%) of shoppers spent on health and wellness during the 2024 holidays, a 5% increase from 2023.
On top of this, the messaging around these products has changed. Replacing the usual ‘New Year, New You’ messaging, brands focused on themes of restoration and emotional support. Mental health-focused products like weighted blankets, mindfulness journals, and meditation app subscriptions grew in popularity. High-tech wellness products like smart rings and infrared saunas also gained traction, reflecting growing interest in personal health and wellness experiences.
MNTN health and wellness advertisers mirrored these trends, seeing notable YoY gains in Q4 2024.
So, what should advertisers (both in the health and wellness space and out) take from this? Positioning products and services as tools for care and restoration resonates during the holiday season. Additionally, brands can benefit from starting post-holiday promotions earlier in the season and can use end-of-year/New Years-focused messaging to inform their holiday campaigns.
Sports Brands Win Big in Q4
Professional athletics teams and other sports-related brands also emerged as unexpected holiday winners in our analysis of Q4 2024 MNTN customer data. Among all MNTN advertiser industries, Sports were among the top 5 for revenue and cost per visit (CPV) and in the top 15 for AOV, return on advertising spend (ROAS), and cost per acquisition (CPA).
This aligns with broader consumer trends toward experiential gifting — in 2024, holiday spending on experiences increased by 16% YoY.
For advertisers outside of the Sports industry, this trend underscores the importance of highlighting experiential elements of any offerings. Whether it’s the impact of using a product, the memories it creates, or the lifestyle it enables, emphasizing emotional and experiential benefits can help brands stand out during the highly competitive holiday season.
Sleigh Your Holiday Campaigns This Q4
Q4 2025 presents a landscape of strategic consumers who are ready to spend but expect genuine value in return. Brands that clearly connect their product offerings to consumer priorities — savings, wellness, experience — will be best positioned to win over today’s thoughtful holiday shoppers.
As Connected TV (CTV) continues to prove its effectiveness in driving powerful Q4 performance, advertisers who take advantage of all the channel has to offer will have a significant advantage in reaching today’s thoughtful holiday shoppers.
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Resources
2 Deal-seeking shoppers powered holiday ecommerce sales to record high (eMarketer)
4 State of the Consumer 2025: When disruption becomes permanent (McKinsey & Company)
5 Consumer Signals (Deloitte)
6 Inside the holiday shopper mindset (ebay)
7 US Holiday 2024 Recap and 2025 Preview (eMarketer)
8 breaking barriers in mental health with December campaigns (Innovacer Cured)
9 Oura rings: the must-have wellness gift that built a £4bn empire (The Times)
10 59 Mental Health Gift Ideas: Gifts for Anxiety, Stress, Self-Care, & More (ChoosingTherapy.com)